Semi-final preview

Wales v France, Eden Park, Auckland, Saturday, KO 0900 (BST)

Wales: Odds to win WC 5/1

Key man: Sam Warburton

Wales’ growth and development this year could not have been better planned. Warren Gatland’s men have shown how simple a game rugby can be; they have been well drilled, superbly organised and solid in defence. In Sam Warburton they possess an inspirational leader, with the ability to rally his troops around hi m and lead them into battle. This tournament could be just the beginning for this group of fresh, young players. As England arrive home and begin to plan a clear out of the dead wood, Wales are only beginning their journey to a potentially long term dominance of northern hemisphere rugby.

France: Odds to win WC 8/1

Key man: Imanol Harinordoquy

Two weeks is a very long time in sport, especially French sport. Les Bleus have been showing off the extremities of their Jekyll and Hyde character throughout the tournament, none as impressive of their resurgent performance against England in Auckland last weekend. As bad as England were in the first half, France looked fresh, sharp and inspired by a brand new energy and ambition. There is no doubting the ability of this immensely talented group of players; however, their mental frailty will provide encouragement to an already confident Welsh outfit.  If the cockerel crows, France could well be in a very strong position to upset the odds and win the 2011 RWC.  

Tournament Talk prediction: France to upset the odds with another impressive performance. Wales’ time will come, possibly in 2015, but this time round, I think France will be back in Auckland next weekend.

New Zealand v Australia, Eden Park, Auckland, Sunday, KO 0900 (BST)

New Zealand: Odds to win WC 4/7

Key man: Whoever is selected at 10, big shoes to fill in the absence of Dan Carter. Aaron Cruden, who impressed from the bench last week is likely to start but the All Blacks have called up Stephen Donald as back-up.

The events of the last year in New Zealand would make a World Cup triumph as close to a fairy-tale as you are likely to get in rugby. The earthquakes in Christchurch may have destroyed a city, but they united a nation. An All Blacks World Cup win would be a perfect tribute to the victims of the earthquakes and Richie McCaw’s men look in prime position to overcome the mental obstacles that have prevented them in the past. The crunch semi-final clash with Australia is likely to be decided at the breakdown, with much emphasis being put on the battle of the number sevens. Master of the art Richie McCaw will come up against the young pretender, David Pocock, looking to remove the AB’s captain from his position as top dog at open-side. Aaron Cruden, or whoever is selected at fly-half will be under enormous pressure to emulate Dan Carter as well as possible. New Zealand will be wary of a dogged Australian side, whose defensive display against South Africa was mighty impressive, the AB’s will have to work hard to break down their trans-Tasman rivals.

Australia: Odds to win WC 9/2

Key man: David Pocock

27% territory and minimum position in a quarter-final would normally result in a trip home, but somehow Australia managed to withstand immense pressure to book their place in the semi-final. With much talk about their oppositions ‘choking’ habit, Australia will be looking to exploit any obvious weaknesses, most notably, the lack of an experienced fly-half. They will also have concerns about their own number 10; Quade Cooper has yet to set the tournament alight and is beginning to adopt the reputation as a ‘hider’ in the big games. There is no escaping the fact that David Pocock will play a massive part in any potential Wallaby success. His incredible strength and immovability at the ruck will provide the Wallabies with a great opportunity to spoil AB possession. But the Aussies will need to offer more going forward than they did against South Africa; a repeat of last weeks’ statistics is almost certain to result in defeat for Robbie Deans’ men.

Tournament Talk prediction: The script is written for New Zealand to win the 2011 RWC and I think they will have too much for this Australia side. The days of ‘choking’ are well and truly over and it is time for the All Blacks to register their four year dominance over the rugby world with a first WC in 24 years.